Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Israeli elections Exit Polls

JPost Exit polls, 10:00p Israel time

Kadima - 29 [prediction: 30 or less]
Labor - 22 [20]
Y.Beiteinu - 14 [12]
Shas - 11 [11]
Likud - 11 [18]
NU/NRP - 8 [12]
Gil - 8 [0]
UTJ - 6 [4]
Arab parties - 6 [8]
Meretz - 5 [5]

Kadima/Labor/Shas/UTJ have 68, but I would be surprised if Gil didn't enter the government, also, for a total of 76. Latest reports still indicate the Y.Beiteinu will join the government. I suppose that with 76 solid seats, Olmert might be willing to take them in in order to create a 90 seat bloc, since he wouldn't lose anything from dumping them if they decide not to toe the line or if they demand too many ministries. This being the case, he doesn't have to take in the chareidi parties immediately, as he would still have a 73 seat government, anyway, but there isn't really anything to lose, from his perspective, by bringing them in to the government. Now that I think about it, Meretz was part of the government not too long ago, so Olmert might decide to bring them in, also, for a total of 81/95 seats.

I think it's time for the Israeli right to seriously take a look at itself and figure out what it's doing wrong.

Update, 4/4:

Labor has lost 3 seats since the exit polls, dropping them from 22 to 19, so that I overshot by 1 rather than undershot by 2. Shas gained 1, from 11 to 12, so that I undershot by 1, rather than getting exact. Likud gained one, decreasing my overprojection from 7 to 6. Y.B. dropped from 14 to 11, so that I overshot by 1 rather than undershooting by 2. Mafdal gained one - a change of a 4-overshoot to a 3-overshoot. Gil fell to 7, as did my undershoot (I'd be amazed if anyone predicted more than 2-3 seats for them). Finally, the Arab parties gained 4 (!), reversing my overshoot to an undershoot.
Kadima/Labor/Meretz/Gil now have only 60 seats (the last caused by a last minute revelation of a recording error (or "error"?) that changed a village's Chadash votes to Cherut, thereby giving Labor an extra seat), so they'll probably still end up pulling in Shas and UTJ, if for no other reason than that the party they choose will hold out until the other is also invited, so as not to be the only religious party in the government.


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